Plundo’s NFC North Division Predictions: Ceiling & Floor Analysis for Each Team

Editor's note: Michael Plundo is an incoming junior at Texas Tech studying Sports Management and spending his second semester as an intern at 600 ESPN El Paso. He is an aspiring sports journalist. Throughout the coming weeks, Michael will be diving into each NFL division to give his outlook on each team, with the ceiling and floor for each franchise. This week, Michael previews the NFC North: 

By Michael Plundo

Prepare yourself for an exciting season filled with intense rivalries and big stakes in the NFC North. This is a division that has changed over the years. Here is a deeper look into all four NFC North teams and where they all currently stand as a team. 

Detroit Lions 

• Record: 12-5 (2023)                           - Overall finish: Lost in Conference Championship 

• Division placement: 1st                      - Head Coach: Dan Campbell (4th season) 

• Offense rank: 394.8 yds/G (3/32)      - Defense rank: 336.1 yds/G allowed (19/32) 

Last year's overview:  

What an absolute turnaround for the Detroit Lions. A couple of years ago, this team was seen as one of the worst organizations in all professional sports, and the team was nowhere near built for a Super Bowl run. Things then changed, in came a new General Manager Brad Holmes, and then came a new head coach Dan Campbell who used to play for the Lions. 

 It took a couple of years, but the Lions found themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and even made it to the NFC Conference championship where they fell short of the 49ers. However, last season can be looked at as a success for Dan Campbell and his squad because the team won a playoff game for the first time since 1991 and captured a division title since 1993. Not only did Dan Campbell help implement a winning culture in Detroit, but key players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and rookie Sam Laporta led the way on offense, and Aidan Hutchinson and rookie Brian Branch on the defense, played a big part in the Lions’ success this past season.  

New Additions:  

The goal for the Lions and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn was to beef up the defense, a group that allowed 23 points per game, which ranked 23rd in the league. Part of that was because of a disastrous secondary. The team cut ties with defensive back Cameron Sutton, who got into off-the-field trouble. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson left to return to Philly. To address the cornerback position, they traded for Carlton Davis from Tampa Bay, who has a Super Bowl on his resume, and inked Amik Robertson to a one-year deal who has experience as a starter. 

Brad Holmes also added fresh faces from the draft by selecting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr., both who bring physicality. To help build the trenches, the team added veteran defensive tackle DJ Reader, who should make a dramatic difference in helping stop the run, and signed Marcus Davenport, familiar with Glenn from their New Orleans days. Transitioning to the offensive side, the Lions lost guard Jonah Jackson to Los Angeles but were able to re-sign Graham Glasgow who was a rock upfront, to replace Jonah they signed veteran Kevin Zeitler who brings durability. He will be joining All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell and pro bowler Frank Ragnow on an offensive line that only allowed 31 sacks with 646 dropbacks, fourth-best in the NFL in terms of rating.  

Burning Questions for DET: 

Many wonder now with the Detroit Lions if they are built for a Super Bowl run. They were close to playing in the big game last year but lost by three points. Lions feel confident in quarterback Jared Goff to get them there as he has seemed to rejuvenate himself since being traded. Goff recently earned a massive payday (four years, $212 million) for his contributions, along with star players Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown who got their bag. While wondering if Detroit can break through and get to the big dance, there are question marks with the defense. 

 Is Aaron Glenn the right man to lead the defense? Will the new additions to the secondary pay off? Arguments can be made that with the Lions solidifying their secondary, they can be even better. If the Lions' defense can create splash plays and the offense can continue to be explosive, there is no reason this team will be in talks of being a Super Bowl contender if they are not already.  

Ceiling/Floor:  

Ceiling: 13-4 

Floor: 9-8 

Green Bay Packers 

• Record: 9-8 (2023)                            - Overall finish: Lost in Divisional round 

• Division placement: 2nd                    - Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (6th season) 

• Offense rank: 345.5 yds/G (11/32)    - Defense rank: 335.1 yds/G allowed (17/32) 

Last year's overview:  

After a controversial offseason in Wisconsin, the Packers entered the 2023 season without longtime quarterback Aaron Rodgers who was traded to the Jets. Jordan Love had big shoes to fill, given the fact that Rodgers had spent 18 seasons with the Packers and even helped bring a Super Bowl trophy to Green Bay. The Packers got off to a slow start as they started the season 3-6 and their playoff hopes were quickly fading away, but the team did not back down and finished the season 6-2, clinching a playoff spot. 

Green Bay upset Dallas in the first round, 48-32, becoming the first No. 7 seed team to win a playoff game. The Packers gave the 49ers a run for their money in the divisional round but ultimately fell short. Love exceeded expectations, as the quarterback finished with 4,159 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 17 games played. This all but confirmed to the organization that Love is the guy moving forward and building around him is the goal.  

New Additions:  

Unlike the last offseason, the Packers were quite active in free agency to help fix some holes. Right away, the team brought back explosive kick returner Keisean Nixon who is a two-time All-Pro returner. The biggest move came in signing running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract to replace Aaron Jones, who was released by the Packers. Jacobs should fill in nicely with coach Matt LaFleur’s offense as he likes to run play-action, the only con that comes with Jacobs is his health.  

Switching to the defensive side, the Packers agreed to terms with safety Xavier McKinney on a four-year, $68 million contract. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said this about his play: “he goes, and he finishes off the pile. I want a guy who can go from sideline to sideline and take the ball away.” McKinney will pair up with rookie Javon Bullard, whom the Packers drafted in the second round. They will be joining two-time second-team All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander to round up the secondary. During the draft, the team selected offensive tackle Jordan Morgan from Arizona in the 1st round, and as mentioned earlier, Bullard a safety from Georgia in the 2nd round, a good find by General Manager Brian Gutekunst. Also, in the second round, the team picked up Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who was a consensus All-American and first-team All-SEC last season.  

Burning Questions for GB:  

An overlooked headline for this team is how young this group is as they were the youngest team in the league last season and could be again this year. With a young healthy team that will be getting Rashan Gary back, and with explosive wide receivers Jayden Reed and Dontavyvion Wicks on the rise paired with Romeo Doubs this Packers’ team could be a fun team to watch. Some question marks regarding the Packers are, what will a Love extension look like? Can Christian Watson and Eric Stokes stay healthy? How much of an impact will new defensive coordinator Hafley bring?  

Love all but set himself as the future of this Packers franchise but is entering the last year of his contract and will be due for an extension. With guys like Goff and Trevor Lawrence recently inking deals that will earn them over $50 million annually, some might wonder if Love will be in that range. Wide receiver Christian Watson and cornerback Eric Stokes, players who can help make a difference for Green Bay, have both had trouble staying on the field. Stokes, a former first-round pick from 2021, had a good rookie season, but has experienced injury troubles and has not matched that production since. 

 Watson, a second-round draft pick in 2022 became a legitimate weapon for Rodgers in his final season catching seven touchdowns and was looking to further build from it but struggled with a nagging hamstring issue and his production dipped. A big problem for Green Bay the past couple of seasons has been ex-defensive coordinator Joe Barry who has led a defense that has gotten worse since 2021. To replace him, LaFleur hired former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, who will be tasked with leading the defense and helping fix a run defense that ranked 28th in 2023. The Packers are looking to further prove themselves and with a hungry Love who is due for an extension and will try to prove that his 2023 campaign was no fluke. If this young squad can continue to build chemistry and Hafley’s defense can generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this team can surprise some people.  

Ceiling/Floor: 

Ceiling: 11-6 

Floor: 8-9  

Minnesota Vikings 

• Record: 7-10 (2023)                            - Overall finish: Did not qualify for Playoffs 

• Division placement: 3rd                      - Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell (3rd season) 

• Offense rank: 347.8 yds/G (10/32)     - Defense rank: 333.2 yds/G allowed (16/32) 

Last year's overview:  

Following a disappointing exit from the 2022-23 playoffs, there were questions about quarterback Kirk Cousins and whether the Vikings would part ways. The organization decided to run it back with Kirk, however, he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in week eight against the Packers. The Vikings were plagued with injuries as star wide receiver Justin Jefferson even missed some time.  

Not only did injuries hurt the team, but bad in-game collapses, turnovers, and the quarterbacks who the Vikings trotted out could not provide any spark and had a combined record of 3-6 after Cousins went down. Despite all this, newcomer pass-catcher Jordan Addison came as advertised, finishing his rookie season with 10 touchdowns and over 900 yards receiving. He and Jefferson will be a good duo for the foreseeable future. No doubt that regression hit the Minnesota Vikings, and a busy offseason was waiting for coach Kevin O’Connell and General Manager Kwesi Adefo-Mensah. 

New Additions: 

Cousins was the main headline surrounding the Vikings and the question was if he was going to return or if he would leave. Cousins’ camp decided to move on as he agreed to a massive four-year contract, a $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed with the Atlanta Falcons. With Cousins heading to Atlanta, Minnesota signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract, which will serve as a bridge option for the team. The Vikings also poached running back Aaron Jones from rivals Green Bay to a one-year contract, who should be an upgrade over previous back Alexander Mattison.  

Kwesi also added to the defense that was inconsistent and dealt with injuries all season long, losing Danielle Hunter to Houston hurts but replacing him with edge rusher Jonathan Greenard who is younger and coming off a breakout season where he recorded 12.5 sacks is not a bad option. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores also helped bring in linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel to a two-year contract, whom he selected in the 2019 draft when Flores was the head coach of the Dolphins. Going to the secondary that had an up-and-down season, the team inked ex-panther cornerback Shaquill Griffin to a one-year deal who has starting experience from his time in Jacksonville and Seattle. 

 To complete the linebacker position, Minnesota agreed to terms with a local player, Blake Cashman on a three-year contract from the Texans. Cashman was all over the field as a starter for Houston last season, racking up 106 total tackles last year and will be the starter alongside second-year player Ivan Pace Jr. The Vikings came away big-time winners from the 2024 draft as they traded up to select quarterback J.J. McCarthy from Michigan to be the team’s future guy and traded up to No. 17 overall with the Jaguars to draft explosive pass rusher Dallas Turner from Alabama, who was shockingly still on the board.  

Burning Questions for MIN: 

The Minnesota Vikings were busy this offseason fixing holes in their roster, but there is uncertainty about positions that remain question marks entering the 2024 season. How impactful will rookie J.J. McCarthy be? Will these new additions help the defense improve?  

McCarthy is coming to a Vikings team that has a good supporting cast featured by superstar wide receiver Jefferson, rising star Addison, Jones coming in from Green Bay, TJ Hockenson at tight end, and an offensive line that finished 3rd in pass-blocking in 2023. When McCarthy starts, it will be determined by how Darnold does as he will be the starting quarterback once the 2024 season opens, due to his experience. He has weapons to work with, the question is if coach O’Connell can help McCarthy develop as a player and if his success at Michigan will translate to the NFL.  

How will this new Minnesota Vikings defense look? The Vikings' defense finished in the middle of the pack in the league last season, upfront there is a lot to like in rookie Turner and Jonathan Greenard playing alongside next to him. The secondary, decimated by injuries will have an interesting look with Murphy and Griffin at the outside cornerback position, second-year player Mekhi Blackmon who showed promise. However, time may be running out for 2022 draftees Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth who were selected in the top rounds. Both have struggled with injuries and have not lived up to expectations, an argument can be made that it is a make-or-break season for both players. The Vikings are on the right track and if McCarthy can develop into the franchise guy for Minnesota, there is no reason the Vikings cannot get back to the playoffs.  

Ceiling/Floor: 

Ceiling: 12-5 

Floor: 8-9  

Chicago Bears 

• Record: 7-10 (2023)                            - Overall finish: Did not qualify for Playoffs 

• Division placement: 4th                       - Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (3rd season) 

• Offense rank: 323.2 yds/G (20/32)     - Defense rank: 324.2 yds/G allowed (12/32) 

Last year's overview: 

Improvement is one word to describe the Chicago Bears 2023-24 season. Considering the team won 3 games in 2022-23, going from 3 to 7 is a start. D.J. Moore was a great pickup from Carolina, he enjoyed a career year, and his current contract keeps him in Chicago through 2025. 7 wins is an improvement, but still is below .500 and an 0-4 start did not do the Bears any favors. 

 Quarterback Justin Fields missed some time, and the offense had their fair share of struggles. The defense finished the season tied for 1st in interceptions with 22 and finished with the best run defense. The offseason was going to be crucial for Chicago, especially regarding the quarterback position and the fact they had the 1st overall pick in the 2024 draft.  

New Additions: 

As the 2024 free agency period opened, the Bears struck right away agreeing to terms with running back D’Andre Swift to a three-year, $24.5 million deal with $15.3 million guaranteed. Swift had his first 1,000-yard rushing season playing in a career-high 16 games. The Bears also signed ex-Chargers tight end Gerald Everett to a two-year, $14 million with $6.1 million guaranteed who has ties with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The big move came in a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers where the Bears acquired wide receiver Keenan Allen in exchange for a 2024 4th-round draft pick, Allen recorded 108 catches with 1,243 yards and 7 touchdowns, joining fellow pass-catchers D.J. Moore and tight end Cole Kmet. 

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears brought back a key player in cornerback Jaylon Johnson, Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated cornerback through week 17, who signed a four-year deal worth $76 million ($54.4 million guaranteed). Staying on the secondary, the Bears also signed two-time All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to a two-year, $15 million deal who will replace Eddie Jackson. Kevin Byard should pair well with Jaquan Brisker, who has been a solid player in the Bears backend. Fast forward to the NFL draft where the Bears had the 1st overall pick thanks to the Carolina Panthers trading them that pick a year ago so they could take quarterback Bryce Young. 

The Bears part ways with Justin Fields after a roller-coaster tenure, trading him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2025 6th-round draft pick, that could turn into a 4th-rounder depending on Fields’ playing time. With the number one overall pick, the Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams who will now be the new man under center. The Bears also had the 9th overall pick selecting star wide receiver Rome Odunze from Washington. Ryan Poles hit a grand slam with these two picks and the organization is hopeful they can bring winning football to the windy city.  

Burning Questions for CHI: 

This Bears team looks better on paper than last year, and head coach Matt Eberflus is hoping so as he is 10-24 entering his 3rd season. Is Eberflus on the hot seat? Will Williams have an immediate impact? Two big questions that float around Chicago.  

The Bears have invested a lot into their offense as of late, spending the 10th pick last year on tackle Darnell Wright, and rebuilding their wide receiver core with Moore, Allen, and rookie Odunze now in the fold. Cole Kmet has improved tremendously, and Williams has the supporting cast around him to enjoy a smooth rookie year. The defense is as strong as ever, 2023 midseason acquisition Montez Sweat helped transform the defense and signed an extension with the team shortly after being traded.  

Jaylon Johnson, a 2023 second-team All-Pro will do his thing and second-year cornerback Tyrique Stevenson who showed flashes, could further grow as a player. Playoffs are realistic for this Chicago Bears squad, and it is not crazy to think Odunze could be an early favorite for offensive rookie of the year. 

Ceiling/Floor: 

Ceiling: 11-6 

Floor: 7-10