NFC South Division Predictions: Ceiling & Floor Analysis for Each Team
Editor's note: Michael Plundo is an incoming junior at Texas Tech studying Sports Management and spending his second semester as an intern at 600 ESPN El Paso. He is an aspiring sports journalist. Throughout the coming weeks, Michael will be diving into each NFL division to give his outlook on each team, with the ceiling and floor for each franchise. In his fourth edition of the series, Michael previews the NFC South below.
The NFC South is up for grabs, with four teams poised for a thrilling battle. In Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are back, determined to defend their division title. Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints are eager to build on last season’s late surge. Meanwhile, Atlanta is ushering in a new era, and the Carolina Panthers, led by second-year quarterback Bryce Young, are looking to make significant strides in their rebuild.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record: 9-8 (2023) - Overall finish: Lost in Divisional Round
- Division placement: 1st - Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
- Offense rank: 313.0 yds/G (23/32) - Defense rank: 344.2 yds/G allowed (23/32)
Last year’s overview:
Tampa Bay had a solid bounce-back season from 2022-23. Going from 8-9 and an early exit in the wild card round to 9-8 and winning a playoff game was an improvement for the Buccaneers. Not much was expected for the Bucs after legendary quarterback Tom Brady announced his retirement and the team signed Baker Mayfield, but Mayfield shocked many. He put up career-high numbers last season and secured himself a nice payday, Tampa has undoubtedly been the highlight of this division as they have won three consecutive division titles.
New Additions:
Just a week before free agency began, Tampa Bay re-signed Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans to multi-year contracts. Mayfield gets a three-year extension worth up to $115 million in incentives and Evans gets a two-year extension worth up to $52 million including $35 million guaranteed. Props to General Manager Jason Licht for getting these done and also locking up star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to a four-year $84.1 million extension, Licht also added some players as well as bringing back a familiar face.
Losing Shaquil Barrett to the Dolphins created a hole in the outside linebacker position, and the team signed Randy Gregory to a one-year deal. Gregory 31, dealt to the 49ers midseason from Denver played in 16 games including all three playoff games, and appeared in the Super Bowl, recorded 3.5 sacks last season. The Bucs traded away cornerback Carlton Davis to Detroit and to replace him they signed former New York Jet Bryce Hall to a one-year deal giving the team another option at the cornerback position, a group that has suffered many injuries in recent memory.
Safety Jordan Whitehead returns to the team that drafted him and was a part of that 2020-21 team that won a Super Bowl, a proven player who had good chemistry with Winfield Jr. is now back in the fold. Heading over to the draft, Licht got himself a stud when he selected offensive lineman Graham Barton out of Duke capable of playing anywhere on the line. Second-round draft choice Chris Braswell was a nice find who shined at Alabama last season with 8 sacks.
Burning Questions for TB:
Tampa Bay was close to playing in the NFC Championship game and is not even five years removed from their Super Bowl win. Baker Mayfield has revitalized his career and forged a strong connection with Mike Evans. Together, they aim to replicate—or even surpass—that success in the upcoming season.
Can Mayfield continue that success? Can the Buccaneers pass rushers rise to the challenge? With a new offensive coordinator Liam Coen coming in from Kentucky, many wonder if anything will change drastically for Tampa’s Offense. Mayfield already has familiarity with Coen from his short stint with the Rams in 2022 where Coen served as the offensive coordinator. The outside linebacker position is filled with uncertainty as Barrett left to sign with Miami, although Barrett’s production has declined since 2021, second-year player Yaya Diaby had 7.5 sacks in 2023 and is looking to build on that, 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shonika who has been serviceable, Gregory is now in the mix and Anthony Nelson who is entering his sixth year with the Bucs. The good news for Tampa is that repeating as NFC South champs is a possibility as a majority of the core from last season are still on the team and if Mayfield can continue to take steps forward and with a defense that found success in stopping the run, if the secondary can create more turnovers, watch out for these Bucs next year.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 7-10
New Orleans Saints
- Record: 9-8 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 2nd - Head Coach: Dennis Allen (3rd season)
- Offense rank: 337.2 yds/G (14/32) - Defense rank: 327.2 yds/G allowed (13/32)
Last year’s overview:
Expectations were high in New Orleans coming into the 2023-24 season, ex-Raider quarterback Derek Carr was brought in on a four-year $150 million contract and the Saints schedule was favorable. However the Saints disappointed missing the playoffs for the 3rd straight season, Carr and the offense were inconsistent and the defense took a huge step back. A once stout defense finished 22nd in run defense, the secondary had 18 interceptions and recorded 34 sacks. Dennis Allen in his first two seasons as Saints head coach has failed to get this team to the playoffs, time could be running out for him and General Manager Mickey Loomis, moves were made, and here is a deeper look at the Saints 2024 offseason.
New Additions:
Desperately needing help with the pass rush, the Saints signed defensive end Chase Young to a one-year fully guaranteed $13 million deal. Young will pair up with veteran Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson who inked an extension with the team last year, and was one of the Saint's most consistent players. Although Young has struggled with injuries and recently underwent neck surgery, plans to be ready for the start of the 2024-25 season.
An underrated signing made by Loomis was adding linebacker Willie Gay, the ex-Chief, to a one-year deal who comes with a couple of Super Bowls on his resume. Started 47 games in his career, was great in pass coverage, and recorded eight tackles in the Super Bowl. The Saints also signed Khaleke Hudson to a one-year deal, a linebacker from Washington who was mainly a special teams player but saw action as a defensive player last season.
No major changes were made on offense, but wide receiver Michael Thomas and the organization parted ways. Thomas, who has been plagued by injuries over the last four seasons, will be moving on. Cedrick Wilson Jr, a wide receiver previously with the Dolphins was signed to a two-year deal giving the team an option at the position. In the 2024 draft, the Saints addressed a major need by selecting tackle Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State. This outstanding pick by General Manager Mickey Loomis provides the team with a promising starter, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Ryan Ramczyk’s knee issues. The Saints also traded up in the second round to grab Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry who joins a solid cornerback room featuring Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor, and hopefully star player Marshon Lattimore, whose name has been thrown around in trade rumors.
Burning Questions for NO:
The Saints have an interesting future ahead of them and it is not a bright one. They have guys on the roster that are on hefty contracts and some of these players' futures’ are in question.
Will Ryan Ramczyk play again?
How hot is Dennis Allen’s seat?
What could Marshon Lattimore fetch?
Since being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, Ryan Ramczyk has exceeded all expectations, becoming everything the Saints could have hoped for and more. First-team All-Pro (2019), 2x Second-team All-pro (2018, 2020), and was named to the All-Rookie team in 2017 by Pro Football Writers of America. After cartilage in his knee deteriorated, Ramczyk’s future may be coming to an end, and with him now being 30, the Saints have a tough decision to make, with Andrus Peat signing with Vegas, a revamp may be coming on that line.
Dennis Allen’s tenure with the Saints so far has not been what he had hoped especially after reuniting with Carr from their Raider days. The organization still seems to have hope he can turn it around and the Saints are playing meaningful football in January. If 2024-25 is another disappointment, Allen’s days in New Orleans are likely over.
With Marshon Lattimore being thrown into trade rumors, what type of value could Loomis get? Could there be a deal soon? The Saints could get a solid return for Lattimore that can set a vision for where this team wants to be. A first-round pick is not out of the question given Lattimore has been one of the better cornerbacks and effective in the league. Although injuries have played a part in his career, many teams value the cornerback position and would be willing to pay up.
The Saints are a team that will be in the playoff race and an NFC South title is realistic, this offense has talent with Kamara in the backfield, and Chris Olave becoming one of the NFL’s best receivers. With the addition of young offensive mastermind Klint Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator, Saints fans can anticipate a significantly improved offense. If Chase Young can reignite the pass rush to the level of his stellar rookie year, New Orleans could be poised for a strong bounce-back season.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
Atlanta Falcons
- Record: 7-10 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 3rd - Head Coach: Raheem Morris (1st season)
- Offense rank: 334.3 yds/G (17/32) - Defense rank: 321.1 yds/G allowed (11/32)
Last year’s overview:
A 7-10 season for a third straight season ended up leading Falcons owner Arthur Blank showing ex-head coach Arthur Smith the door. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had a roller-coaster season, started decently at first but then ran into much stronger defenses and had turnover problems. The defense was a solid unit, and adding safety Jessie Bates III proved to be worth it, he made a huge impact by leading the team in tackles and interceptions. Atlanta underwent major changes this offseason, here is a deeper look at what General Manager Terry Fontenot did.
New Additions:
A busy offseason by Fontenot as the Falcons cleaned house and completely rebuilt the coaching staff. Raheem Morris, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Rams was hired as the team’s new head coach, he brought over Rams assistant Zac Robinson to be the team’s offensive coordinator and the Rams assistant head coach Jimmy Lake as the Falcons defensive coordinator. Great hires all around and the next step came in improving the team that has not made the playoffs since the 2017-18 season.
Fontenot upgraded the quarterback position by signing former Viking Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract, replacing Ridder who was later dealt to Arizona for wide receiver Rondale, an under the radar pickup. Atlanta picked up receivers Darnell Mooney on a three-year deal and Ray-Ray McCloud on a two-year deal, Mooney brings versatility having played in both the outside and in the slot, a solid pickup, McCloud adds speed and can help out in special teams. After parting ways with Jonnu Smith, Falcons signed ex-49er tight end Charlie Woerner to a three-year deal, a great blocker that finished with an 86.7% pass block win rate and a 77.5% run block rate.
Fontenot left Falcon fans puzzled after selecting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington with the 8th overall pick. An interesting pickup considering the team just signed Cousins and are paying him an average annual salary of $45 million and there were other players on the board that would have helped Atlanta right away. With Calais Campbell signing with Miami in free agency, the Falcons bolstered their defensive line by picking up Ruke Orhorhro from Clemson and Brandon Dorlus from Oregon. These two underrated acquisitions by Fontenot could prove to be pivotal additions .
Burning questions for ATL:
A new era is dawning in Atlanta, bringing excitement and anticipation. The offense appears stronger on paper, while a young defense is eager to establish itself as one of the league's best.
Can Kirk Cousins return to form?
Could the Michael Penix Jr. pick create internal drama?
Kirk was a phenomenal pickup for Atlanta, one of the best play-action quarterbacks in the league and joining an offense that features pass-catchers Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Mooney now in the mix, and with Tyler Allgeier and second-year player Bijan Robinson in the backfield, sky's the limit. However, he is coming off a torn achilles and will be 36 when the season starts, can he return to form? Will this injury affect his start to the season? All things to think about and to monitor going forward.
Selecting Penix Jr. in the top ten raised many eyebrows. However, given Cousins' major injury and Jordan Love's success after sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for a couple of seasons, the rationale behind the pick becomes clearer. Rumors emerged after the draft that Cousins' camp was disappointed with the selection, creating concerns about potential internal drama within the organization. If Kirk returns to form, Penix may not see the field for a while, and at 24, Morris and Fontenot will face a tough decision regarding his future.
Despite the controversial selection of Penix Jr., the Falcons are well-positioned for a bounce-back season. If the offense can generate points and the defense performs as expected, the Falcons could be on the rise.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 11-6, Floor: 7-10
Carolina Panthers
- Record: 2-15 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 4th - Head Coach: Dave Canales (1st season)
- Offense rank: 265.3 yds/G (32/32) - Defense rank: 293.9 yds/G allowed (4/32)
Last year’s overview:
A season to forget, finishing near the bottom in terms of offense is something that the Carolina Panthers and second-year quarterback Bryce Young felt after last year. To make matters worse, the Panthers didn't have their first-round pick this year, having traded it to Chicago last offseason to move up to the number one spot in the 2023 draft to select Young. Additionally, star wide receiver D.J. Moore was part of that trade and went on to have a career season with the Bears. He would have been a valuable weapon for Young, filling a significant void in Carolina's offense. Owner David Tepper revamped his staff and brought in new faces to help steer the Panthers in the right direction.
New Additions:
New Carolina Panthers General Manager Dan Morgan, a former player for the team, was highly active this offseason. He hired ex-Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as the new head coach and ended the Brian Burns saga by trading him to the New York Giants for draft picks. To replace Burns, Morgan signed local talent Jadeveon Clowney to a two-year, $20 million contract. While Clowney isn’t as effective as Burns, he pairs well with former Viking D.J. Wonnum and will mentor rookie pass rusher DJ Johnson. Additionally, the Panthers bolstered their defensive line by signing A’Shawn Robinson to a three-year deal to complement star defensive tackle Derrick Brown. On defense, they also brought in linebacker Josey Jewell, familiar with defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, and cornerback Dane Jackson, whom Morgan helped recruit to Buffalo. Jackson is coming off a productive year with 28 pass breakups and three interceptions.
Getting support for Young was the goal for Morgan and Canales and they acquired a new receiver in Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for cornerback Donte Jackson and a pick swap. Johnson provides Young with a deep threat, excelling at route running and creating separation. As he enters the final year of his contract, he has the potential to break out and offer Carolina a long-term solution at the receiver position. Staying on offense, the Panthers upgraded their offensive line signing guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to multi-year contracts. Hunt agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract with $63 million guaranteed, while Lewis signed a four-year, $53 million deal with $26.2 million guaranteed. These two additions will significantly bolster the interior line, a crucial upgrade for Young, who was sacked 62 times last year and is eagerly anticipating their impact.
In the 2024 draft, not owning a first-round selection that ended up being number one overall, hurt the organization but Morgan and Canales came away with some talent. Trading up in the first round to snag receiver Xavier Legette from South Carolina and second-round pick Jonathon Brooks, a running back from Texas is a sleeper pick who could be a future starter.
Burning Questions for CAR:
The good news for the Panthers is it can’t get much worse, with a new head coach and General Manager in charge, Panthers fans are hopeful. A plethora of moves were made and this team looks better on paper.
Can Bryce Young bounce-back from a disastrous rookie season?
Is Jaycee Horn’s time in Carolina running short?
Carolina is counting on Young to be the future hence why they traded a haul to Chicago and signed players that can help make an immediate impact. Can he recover from a forgettable rookie season? The offensive line looks improved with the additions of Lewis and Hunt, while Johnson and Legette bolster the receiving corps. With offensive mastermind Dave Canales leading the way, Young could be poised for a breakout season.
2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn has proven to be one of the league's best cornerbacks—when he’s on the field. Horn has struggled with injuries since being in the league, suffered a fractured foot in 2021 on week 3 missing the rest of the season, a broken wrist in 2022 late December, and only played four games last season due to a hamstring injury. Carolina picked up his fifth year option, so the organization still believes in him but if these injuries continue, that belief might go away.
Improvement can be expected from the Carolina Panthers this upcoming season, but a playoff berth seems unlikely given the team is still in the rebuilding phase and chances of a NFC South title are slim.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 4-13
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