Will Arizona Vote Red or Blue in 2024?

For most of its history, Arizona has been a primarily red state, with only two Democratic victories since its foundation as a state. Despite its storied Republican history, Arizona has begun to look more purple than red or blue.

After the contentious 2020 presidential election, in which Arizona flipped blue at the last minute, Arizona's perception in the public eye shifted.

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What's Causing The Change?

One of the biggest factors in Arizona's shift to purple is the high number of younger voters moving in-state. Arizona's booming job and housing market has made it a haven for recent graduates to come and start their professional life.

Many younger voters tend to lean more blue, so their voices are suddenly becoming more and more prevalent. This was already seen in the 2020 election in which, interference or not, Joe Biden gained a surprisingly larger amount of votes than expected.

Is Arizona Leaning Red or Blue Now?

Despite the influx of younger, more blue-prone voters, moving to the Grand Canyon state, the state is hardly a Democrat's paradise. Even in the 2020 election, the Democrats only polled 0.3% more votes than the Republicans in the state. Not exactly a landslide victory.

Looking at population data, there are about 1.4 million registered Republicans and 1.2 million registered Democrats, making Arizona, by definition, a primarily red state.

This does not coincide with how election results will play out, however. Voter's opinions on candidates can change rapidly, and may not stick to the party line they are registered for. Only about half of Arizona's registered voters will make their way to the ballot box this fall, leaving the fate of Arizona's choice up to destiny.