Are Underdogs October Best Bets? NFL and CFB Weekend Preview
The first October weekend of the 2021 Football season features some very fascinating matchups to keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday. In College Football, very important interconference games that will lay the ground work for who will and will not play in their Conference Championships games. Meanwhile in the NFL, aside from the well hyped Brady vs Belichick showdown on Sunday Night Football, there are some important games that will serve as resume builders for contenders and the losers of those matchups will have to go back to the drawing board.
Rivalry games like Texas vs TCU and Seahawks vs 49ers have deep histories in recent decades but I recommend watching instead of "getting a piece of the action". History of these matchups says one thing but the odds makers are trying to steal your money by taking advantage of your knowledge of the history. Last weekend, we gave you Nine Winners between College Football, UFC 266 and NFL - So let's breakdown some of the matchups this weekend and don't forget you can catch all the action plus make your wagers at the Fan Duel Sportsbook right off the boardwalk inside Bally's Atlantic City!
(All betting odds featured here are from Fan Duel Sportsbook and betting lines are what is available in New Jersey as of 6pm EST on Friday afternoon. Gambling Problem? Call 1800-GAMBLER)
College Football Week 5
-2021 College Football On Air ATS Picks: 22-9 (Last Week: 5-2)
*Michigan at Wisconsin
While the Michigan Wolverines have a glamorous 4-0 record this season, the combined win-loss record of their opponents this season is a underwhelming 10-6 record. On the other sideline is a Wisconsin Badgers team that has lost to two of the best teams in College Football this season: Penn State and Notre Dame. Michigan's Offense leans heavily on their Running Game, averaging 290.8 Rush Yards per Game but last weekend Rutgers Defense shutdown the Wolverines Offensive attack in the second half. Now Michigan has to get their running game going against a Wisconsin Defense that is allowing 25 Rushing Yards Per Game. That is not a typo: Wisconsin's Defense allowed Notre Dame Nine Rushing Yards and against Penn State they limited their offense to just 50 Rushing Yards.
Best Bet: Wisconsin -2.5
This is a major home game for Wisconsin because they are honoring legendary former Head Coach and longtime Athletic Director Barry Alvarez on Saturday. The fans are going to pack Camp Randle Stadium to honor the man most synonymous with Badgers Football. Plus, John Harbaugh is 0-11 as an underdog Against The Spread during his time at Michigan. I think Wisconsin is going to play their best game of the season and hand Michigan their first loss this season.
*Arkansas at Georgia
This showdown of two teams ranked in the Top Ten of the A{ College Football Poll features two of the best defenses in all of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). While Georgia's Defense has allowed no more than 13 Points against to any team this season, their opponents combined win-loss record is just 8-8 while dominating Vanderbilt is nothing special and that early season win over Clemson doesn't look impressive anymore. Now the Georgia Bulldogs have to face an Arkansas Razorbacks football team that defeated the two best teams from Texas this season (Longhorns and Aggies) while their defense is allowing just 14.5 Points Per Game this year.
Best Bet: Arkansas +18.5 and UNDER 48.5
Under Head Coach Sam Pittman, Arkansas is now 9-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog including last weekend's game against Texas A&M. Georgia's starting Quarterback JT Daniels is dealing with nagging Oblique and Latissimus Dorsi injuries so he is not 100 percent, but neither is Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson who is dealing with strains he sustained in the Razorback's win last week. These numbers on the spread and Over/Under are just too high for me to rationalize considering who both of these teams are; I expect Georgia to win but in a "Rock Fight" style of game.
*Liberty at UAB
This matchup of two teams with a 3-1 record featuring two fun offenses led by Liberty's NFL Draft Prospect Quarterback Malik Willis and UAB's Senior Wide Receiver listed at 6'5" plus 240 lbs Gerrit Prince. But when you dig deeper into this game is the numbers are skewed heading into this game: when you remove the Georgia game from the UAB Blazers stat lines, their Defense is allowing just Nine Points Per Game while their Offense has compiled a total of 99 Points in those three games. Liberty is coming off an ugly loss on the road last week at Syracuse and now they are back on the road this week traveling to Birmingham, Alabama to play UAB.
Best Bet: UAB -2.5
This Saturday Night features UAB Football's first home game of the season and the grand opening of their brand new field: Protective Stadium will hold 45,000 fans. Before the game they will raise their Conference USA Football Championship Flag pregame with the Internationally renown UAB Marching Blazers hyping up a diehard fan base in a community that loves this football team down in in Birmingham, Alabama. Liberty's Offense underwhelmed last weekend at Syracuse as the Flames Football team was 5-12 on Third Downs and the team compiled seven costly penalties in the loss. Now Liberty is going back on the road for a second straight week against UAB team with a much better resume of competition this season.
*Boston College at Clemson
These are two football programs going in very different directions: the Clemson Tigers have lost two games before December for the first time since 2014 thanks to poor play by their Offensive and Defensive Lineman. Meanwhile Boston College is 4-0 this season with an offense averaging 41.3 Points Per game even though they lost their original starting Quarterback early in the season. The BC Eagles last weekend won an Overtime game against Missouri and that's a big confidence booster heading into this road game at Clemson.
Best Bet: Boston College +14.5
Since winning the National Championship in 2019, Clemson is 5-12 ATS and have failed to cover the spread five straight games thanks to their loss at NC State last week. Boston College's well balanced offense is going to force Clemson to put up their best effort of the season in order to maintain their winning streak of 30 straight games at home.
*Auburn at LSU
Both of these teams may have 3-1 record this seasons but they have very different stories on their path to this showdown on Saturday Night. Auburn got two easy wins to start the season against lesser competition but then they have struggled to average 27 Points Per Game in their last two games. LSU has been surging since their opening week loss at UCLA and they got a payback victory last week against Mississippi State to avenge their embarasing loss last year. LSU's Quartback Max Johnson leads the SEC with 15 Passing Touchdowns and 1,143 Passing Yards is third best in the conference.
Best Bet: LSU -3.5
LSU has won three straight games since losing Week One on the road at UCLA and their Quarterback Max Johnson has thrown three or more passing touchdowns in six straight games. Auburn has lost 10 straight at "Death Valley" in Baton Rouge and Box Nix has struggled on the road compiling Nine Touchdowns and Ten Interceptions in his last ten road games. Auburn's offense looks like a mess after the Tigers almost lost at home last weekend to a Georgia State team that is 1-3 on the season. In their last two games, Auburn Defense is allowing 26 Points per game, so add that to a Quarterback controversy brewing between Bo Nix and TJ Finley, Auburn is not in a good place going on the road to face a confident LSU football team.
NFL Week 4
-2021 NFL ATS On Air Picks: 19-14 (2-3 last week)
*Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy continues to be coy when the media asks him questions and at Friday's Press Conference said the starting Quarterback will be a Game Tim Decision plus he wont say if he is calling the plays or not for the Offense. While Chicago continues to be full of unnecessary drama, Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell has preached a consistent message to the media and his players about competing in every game. The Bears Offense has struggled a lot this season while the Lions are averaging almost double the Points per Game (22.3) compared to Chicago (13.3)
Best Bet: Lions +3 or Lions Moneyline +130
Lions have no quit in them and they made things interesting against three potential playoff teams this season (49ers, Packers, Ravens). The Bears Offensive Line is worse than the Lions Defense; Detroit has an Offensive Identity while Chicago is extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Lions are a better football team than their 0-3 record this season and this game may be the first step towards the end of Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy's tenure in Chicago.
*Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
I have to admit, I feel bad for Rookie Quarterback Zach Wilson: Jets have one of the worst Offensive Lines in the NFL and that results in the Offense unable to produce a dependable running game to take pressure off the young QB. Titans don't have a great defense but they did compile 10 QB Hits against the Colts last weekend and their offense a beast that New York cannot stop: Running Back Derrick Henry
Best Bet: Titans -6
The only reason this spread is not higher in Tennessee's favor is because of they are dealing with several injuries at key positions like Wide Receiver and Linebacker. But the Jets have less talent and less experience than the Titans, combine that with what I expect to be a big day for Derrick Henry against a Jets Defense that allowed 152 Rushing Yards to the Patriots in Week Two.
*Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Heading into NFL Week 4, two of the favorites to win the NFL MVP Award this year are rams QB Matthew Stafford (+800) and Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (+850). They lead offenses that both rank top three in the NFL in Scoring (Cardinals - 34.3 PPG / Rams - 31.7 PPG) and both of their defenses have proven to be vulnerable against high powered passing attacks. Cardinals Defense allowed Three Touchdown Pass to Vikings QB Kirk Cousins while the Rams Defense allowed a total of 885 Passing Yards combined to Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton.
Best Bet: Over 54.5
This should be a shootout between NFC West Rivals both trying to get an edge in a competitive division. I expect this to be a 35-30 type of game with Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray trying to match each other on every possession.